Friday 27th Feb, 2009
The furore over the evil Lord of the Dark, Sir Fred, and his dastardly plan to run off with all the loot, has served to confirm one thing above all else: the average British punter now takes matters relating to our banks very personally. In the past, fat cats were mere symbols of what people hated – they stood for inequality, injustice and greed. Doubtless their excesses were coming at a cost to someone, but who exactly wasn’t clear, and anyway, most of us would have given our right arm for the chance to be in their position.
Thursday 26th Feb, 2009
It's been widely reported that Volvo trucks suffered a potentially catastrophic fall in demand in the third quarter of 2008: from around 40,000 trucks a month, sales fell to around 100. Clearly, the owners of big fleets of trucks are trying to save money by running their vehicles for longer.
Tuesday 24th Feb, 2009
There's a common perception that consultants do well in a downturn. Because they sell services rather than products, consulting firms are - the argument goes - better able to adapt what they do to, to fit changing economic circumstances. Thus, in the good times, their focus is on growth and new markets; in bad times, it's on cost-cutting.
But perhaps consulting tells us more about the economic situation than we think.
Saturday 14th Feb, 2009
If the consulting "industry" is a collection of micro-markets, you'd expect any downturn to hit sectors and services at different times and with varying degrees of ferocity. That would certainly be borne out by the experience of niche firms in recent years: 2002-04 saw some firms powering ahead while others gave up an unequal struggle. Bigger firms see this, too, although their broader portfolio disguises the ups and downs of specific markets.
These slides attempt to show how a downturn rolls across the major sectors and services in consulting.
Saturday 14th Feb, 2009
The question on every consultants' lips at the moment is just how badly will a recession affect their business.
The answer comes in three stages.
Saturday 14th Feb, 2009
Of course it's dangerous to use the past as a guide to the future, but bear with me for a moment.
Sunday 1st Feb, 2009
Discounting isn’t just confined to the high street. Consulting firms are already cutting their fee rates, even though all the indications are that the consulting industry grew slightly in 2008 and most firms are not in a position where they are desperate for business. Indeed, compared to the last downturn in the consulting industry, firms seem to be offering price cuts at an earlier point in the economic cycle.
Wednesday 31st Dec, 2008
A friend of mine is an analyst for an investment bank. In normal circumstances he’d feed a company’s data into his excel spreadsheets and, because his spreadsheets are much more clever than mine, they tell him whether to make a buy, hold or sell call on a particular stock.
Of course ‘normal’ circumstances are hard to come by, so my friend usually has to combine what his spreadsheets tell him with a bit of good old-fashioned market savvy to come up with the answer.
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